MAGA Will Rule or Ruin

A roundup of the latest developments in America’s authoritarian crisis: How the Trumpists plan to bring down the Republic – and how they might react to electoral defeat

This is a regular feature for paid members wherein I round up the latest developments in America’s ongoing authoritarian crisis, with a focus on what is happening on the Right. The first part of the piece is free for everyone. If you want to read more than the preview, please consider becoming a member (Opens in a new window) of Democracy Americana and support my work.

If this were a normal administration, they would change course immediately. Just three weeks ago, millions of people mobilized in the streets to protest Trump’s authoritarian agenda. The president is extremely unpopular. And the people just dealt his party a devastating electoral blow. The message couldn’t be clearer.

But the reason why America is in this situation in the first place is that this is not a “normal” administration, but a government in the hands of a radicalizing, authoritarian movement. And the GOP rarely acts like a normal modern political party at all anymore: It is defined by a bizarre cult of personality and a base drowning in conspiracy theories.

There are very few “normal” people left in and around this administration. I don’t mean “normal” as in “moderate” – just people whose brains haven’t been poisoned by engaging with the world entirely through the prism of the rightwing media machine; who are still seeking and computing empirical information even if it contradicts the bizarre contortions of their ideological bubble; who still feel bound to something resembling the game of democratic politics instead of believing they have a right to end the game once and for all.

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This is not a “normal” administration, and that makes it significantly more difficult to assess what might come next. After Tuesday’s election, it was Donald Trump, of all people, who seemed to react with a recognizably “normal” political instinct: He knows the shutdown is a problem for him and his party and called on Republican senators (Opens in a new window) to put an end to it: “If you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor, negative for Republicans.” Could this potentially open the door for voices who understand that the rules of “normal” politics aren’t yet fully suspended, that the country hasn’t irrevocably turned MAGA, that Republicans are running the risk of getting wiped out in future elections unless they exercise some measure of tactical restraint? That seemed to be what animated someone like Texas senator Ted Cruz (Opens in a new window) back in September when he publicly distanced himself from Brandan Carr, the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, after Carr had openly threatened ABC/Disney and demanded they take Jimmy Kimmel’s late night show off the air. Again, this is obviously not about “moderation.” But there is still a fault line within the GOP between those who fear public backlash – and those like Stephen Miller who are so determined to establish a fully authoritarian order, and soon, that they cannot be bothered to care about public opinion.

Then again, Donald Trump’s brief glimpses of flirting with “normal” politics notwithstanding, the president is of course also the most delusional person of the whole bunch. He remains obsessed with the Big Lie, with the 2020 election that was “stolen” from him. He doesn’t like the shutdown fight – yet he is not looking for moderation or compromise. He desires authoritarian escalation instead. And unfortunately, if we look at what the regime and its supporters have been up to over the past two weeks or so, this is also where things are heading on the Right more generally.

Let’s reflect on some of the latest developments in American authoritarianism – including: All the talk about a third term for Trump; the attack on elections is heating up; the National Guard is forming “quick reaction forces” and the Right has been dreaming about the Insurrection Act since the summer of 2020; Border Patrol extremism and state-condoned January 6 terrorism; Trump officials act like they are at war with their fellow Americans; and, just briefly, there is a MAGA civil war brewing.

“He’s gonna get a third term”

On the Right, talk about Trump “deserving” or “needing” a third term isn’t new – but it has considerably picked up lately. Trump himself (Opens in a new window) has said he “would love to do it.” The reason why he has been asked about it a lot recently is that Steve Bannon gave a much-discussed interview to The Economist on October 23 in which he declared: “He’s gonna get a third term. So, Trump ’28. Trump is gonna be president in ’28. And people just ought to get accommodated with that.” (The full interview is here (Opens in a new window); and a shorter clip with most of the “third term” part of the conversation is here (Opens in a new window).) Bannon also announced that “At the appropriate time, we’ll lay put what the plan is. But there’s a plan.”

Let’s start with the obvious: A third term for Trump would be utterly unconstitutional. There is no loophole, no good-faith debate: The people who wrote and ratified the 22nd Amendment in 1951 were entirely clear about their intent – they instituted a hard, non-negotiable two-term limit.

Those are the facts. And in order to circumvent them, to suspend this key provision in the Constitution, Bannon and Trump will have to do a lot more than just talk into microphones. Always remember, their lawlessness does not make them omnipotent. Absolutely no need to pre-emptively concede the idea that they can just snap their fingers and end the constitutional order.

Let’s also consider the source here. Bannon likes to hear himself talk. There is an element of grandstanding and self-aggrandizement in everything he says. He wants to be seen as the mastermind working in the background, pulling the strings. He also loves to provoke, anything that produces an outcry among the mainstream while proving his “hardcore” credentials to the rightwing base. Frankly, I bet this whole “we have a masterplan” stuff is utter horseshit.

And yet, we can’t simply ignore this third-term talk either, unfortunately. Because MAGA is definitely sincere about replacing the Republic with Trumpian autocracy. They are certainly not thinking they have a maximum of three more years until Trump exits the stage. “The country needs him to be the president of the United States,” Bannon said to The Economist: “We have to finish what we started.” 

As outlandish as it sounds, Bannon outlined the fundamentals of MAGA’s claim to unfettered power quite clearly and openly in the interview.